Projects / NFL Elo Ratings & Predictions

NFL Elo Ratings & Predictions

Who wins this week, and how likely is it? Every game gets a pre-game win probability and a model point spread; every team gets its odds of making the playoffs and winning its division, from thousands of simulated seasons. Underneath is FiveThirtyEight's retired NFL Elo model, rebuilt from their published source and re-fit on modern seasons: one rating per team, plus home field, rest and the starting quarterback. Scores update live — predictions are the model's pre-game view and stay fixed once a game kicks off.